Volume Based Support Analysis – BTC

Volume Based Support Analysis – BTC

Bitcoin / Dollar GEMINI:BTCUSD


Hi, Hello and Welcome!
DO NOT TRADE THIS AT HOME: This is simply my speculation alone.

This is your opportunity to hear my 2 cents on where I think the BTC$USD price is heading to next. Looking at the volume levels since the March 12 market crash (that occurred due to WHO declaring COVID19 a global pandemic) we can see we started to establish clear horizontal support levels backed by trade volume .

Upon looking closer we can see the price has a tendency to spike up completely neglecting an entire trading price zone (generally with low spot volume ) and then the market would correct to come fill this range relatively quickly in the days to come (in some cases making this new support).

Take note of the amount of support we have been building since that crash, with that perspective its hard to deny that overall we are in a bull market if you look at the events post the march 12 market crash:
1) BTC Price Up: the growth has been supported by the same trend line everyone has drawn on their graphs starting from the dip till now.
2)US FED injecting more than 2 Trillion USD into the US economy in hopes of preventing a financial crisis.
3) 31% of the world’s COVID19 cases occur in the US (almost 800k cases)

The events likely to follow:
1) BTC Halving Monday May 11th (Most Mondays BTC shoots up, I do not see why it wont shoot up especially when halving is this day too)
2)USD will experience hyper inflation .
3) BTC will shoot up to some crazy value and then come establish a new price floor (trading range) of anywhere between 14k to 20k.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: Very bullish signals all throughout on any smaller time frame.

BTC Volume Analysis:
The spot volume range distribution compared on a day to day followed by week by week time frame has been demonstrating a bell type curve distribution ever since the march 12 crash. Whats interesting is if you graph the % change of this distribution over time you can notice we are loosing the volume we need to solidify any bullish trends and that this bell type distribution has been falling (leaning) back towards the bearish levels.

DON’T SWEAT IT!:
Anyone holding BTC long term aka 6 months+ or “I don’t mind waiting a year” has nothing to worry they can buy at any price right now since in the long-term BTC must go up significantly and if it does not go up amidst halvings, chances are it might go out of existence. Keep in mind this is highly unlikely since miners wont let it happen, and moreover at any price below the current price there will always be another trader with faith in BTC .

Take a Deep Breath and Remember to Enjoy Your Life!
S.P.