Bitcoin–Breakout or Reversal?

Bitcoin–Breakout or Reversal?

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar BITSTAMP:BTCUSD


Is Bitcoin set for a break-out to the upside and potentially a return to $20k, or are we nearing the end of Bitcoin’s latest rally?

The Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin consolidates around the lower 9k’s for a while before retaking and sustaining above 10k. Price pushing above $10,500 results in a lot of buying pressure causing price to surge by thousands.
While Bitcoin has taken on a more bearish posture as of late, there are yet reasons to remain bullish . The traditional stock market is performing well. As long as the market as a whole is bullish , there is less reason to be bearish . The market tends to move together. Another reason to be bullish is because of the monthly read on the MACD indicator. The monthly appears to be positioned for a good close tomorrow (06/29/20) and Btc could get the monthly buy signal. It’s generally counter-intuitive to be bearish when Bitcoin’s got a green light on the monthly. If only the market were that simple.

The Bearish Scenario: Price falls to $8,600, then to 7500, then to 69.
There is good reason to be bearish . Price has been rejected at the top of the range once again, this time failing to even touch $10,500 before rejection at $10,429. Every day bitcoin fails to retake $9,300, $9,500–the bearish case is reinforced. Btc at the moment has death-crosses up to the 6-hour time-frame. This means (perhaps obviously) that movement averages on the lower, and increasingly higher time frames are flipping bearish . Weekly indicators and oscillators are pointed south, while lower to mid time frames appear indecisive and confused.

My opinion:
Volume and volatility are tightly contracted, which implies a big move is coming.
Not advice, but I look for a drop below previous swing lows for downside
confirmation and previous swing highs for upside confirmation.
Trading isn’t knowing exactly what the market is going to do, it’s being prepared for what it does.